The evolution of suicide mortality in Europe: decline with persistent disparities in an age-period-cohort analysis

Pronounced variations in suicide mortality persist across Europe. Understanding long-term temporal patterns through age, period and cohort (APC) effects, alongside suicide means, is essential for tailored prevention. This study aims to determine how suicide mortality rates in Europe have changed across APC dimensions at national and subregional levels.

Our analysis was restricted to European countries with complete age- and sex-specific suicide mortality data from 1990 to 2019 within the World Health Organization mortality database. The analysis comprised two components. The first component disentangled long-term suicide mortality trends (1990-2019) into APC dimensions using an age-period-cohort model via the National Cancer Institute's APC Web Tool. The second component involved an assessment of suicide means, restricted to 2010-2019 and to countries with detailed International Classification of Diseases, 10th Revision (ICD-10) cause-of-death data.

In 2019, Europe recorded 47,793 male and 13,111 female suicide deaths. Overall suicide mortality rates declined in most subregions from 1990 to 2019, with the largest reductions among Eastern European men, from 77.81 (95% CI: 77.17-78.45) per 100,000 in the mid-1990s to 22.93 (95% CI: 22.58-23.28) per 100,000 by 2019, although this region retained the highest male suicide burden. Age-specific risk patterns differed markedly: among men, risk peaked in early adulthood and then declined in Eastern Europe, while in Western and Southern Europe, it was lower and more stable but rose after age 60; for women, risk was generally lower, with peaks in early adulthood in Eastern Europe and in midlife elsewhere. Period reflected continued improvement, especially in Eastern Europe where the period risk in 2015-2019 was approximately 60% lower than 2000-2004. Cohort effects similarly showed progressive declines. However, upward trends emerged among younger generations. In Northern Europe, the cohort relative risk for females increased from 0.73 (95% CI: 0.68-0.78) in the 1980 cohort to 0.90 (95% CI: 0.70-1.04) in the 2000 cohort. While the completeness of suicide means analysis varied by subregion, the primary data indicated that hanging was the predominant means for both sexes during 2010-2019.

Despite an overall decline, suicide mortality in Europe exhibits persistent regional and demographic differences. This study reveals emerging risks among younger cohorts, specifically Northern European women and Southern European men, signalling shifting patterns that are not apparent from overall temporal trends alone. This evolving risk profile calls for sustained surveillance and research to investigate the drivers of these population-specific vulnerabilities.