Changes in the transformative potential of action proposals in Finnish Red Lists from 1986 to 2019

Red lists provide critical knowledge regarding biodiversity decline, especially in Finland, where broad assessments have been made regularly since the 1980s. They deliver information on the threat status of species and ecosystems, propose actions to guide conservation policy, and have the potential to spur transformative change. We examined whether the transformative potential of the proposals has changed over time. We analyzed the contents qualitatively and quantitatively of seven Finnish Red Lists of Species or Ecosystems from 1986 to 2019. We used a prior analysis of transformative potential of conservation actions in the Conservation Measures Partnership classification (such as outreach or conservation designation and planning), which identified Meadows' sustainability leverage points (i.e., in complex systems, a point at which a small change can lead to large changes) associated with each action category. We also determined the number of proposals that overlapped with sectors beyond conservation. We used a nonparametric Mann-Kendall trend test and linear models to analyze temporal trends in the data. Cross-sectoral proposals increased over time, but there was only a small shift toward actions that influenced the root causes of biodiversity loss (i.e., deep leverage actions). In the qualitative assessment of how the actions were proposed to be implemented, actions became more complex and effectiveness of implementation increased, demonstrating a change within conservation action categories toward deeper leverage points. This increasing transformative potential can be a catalyst and a consequence of broader societal change driven by ongoing biodiversity loss. Red lists could play a role in transformative change, but the engagement of actors across society in devising action proposals must be inclusive and cover expertise from the social sciences and humanities. Our results emphasize the importance of considering complementary dimensions of transformative change simultaneously to achieve a comprehensive understanding of viable paths to societal change.