Optimizing the personnel requirements for efficient sampling during simulated African swine fever outbreaks in the...

The incursion of African swine fever (ASF) into the U.S. could severely disrupt the swine industry, underscoring the need for robust preparedness to ensure effective control and eradication. Despite progress in surveillance strategies, gaps remain in estimating detection delays due to sample collection and laboratory processing times and capacities, which could undermine the ASF response. Here, we developed an integrated model that simulated ASF epidemics and surveillance strategies, estimating the number of samples, diagnostic tests, and sample collectors required. Additionally, the model accounts for sampling prioritization, sample collectors' working hours, downtime, and the collection of blood and oral fluid samples. Our simulations generated a median of 68 (99% range: 1-762) secondary infections over 150 days, requiring sampling 572 (99% range: 1-15,574) premises and 2376 (99% range: 8-69,162) barns, including repeat sampling of the same premises. To ensure sample collection without delays, a median of 216 (99% range: 2-1706) sample collectors were required. The laboratory received a median of 76,415 blood samples (99% range: 93-2,138,597), requiring a daily capacity to test 9207 individual samples to prevent delays or redistribution of a median of 8208 samples. For each 100 additional sample collectors trained, the time to detection was reduced by 1.4 days (99% range: 0-3.1 days), while increasing daily laboratory capacity by 500 samples reduced the time to detection by 0.4 days (99% range: 0-2.3 days). Our results highlighted the importance of a trained pool of sample collectors and laboratory surge capacity to respond efficiently against ASF outbreaks in the U.S.