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Uncertainty aware machine learning for bridging simulation and experiment in high throughput materials
Jie Chen1,2,3, Timothy Long4, Michael Wall4
1Department of Mechanical Engineering, Virginia Tech, Blacksburg, VA, USA.
Scientific Reports
|May 6, 2026
Summary
This study introduces Uncertainty-aware Simulation-to-Experiment Modeling (USEM) to improve machine learning (ML) for materials discovery. USEM adapts ML models from simulation to experimental data, enhancing accuracy and uncertainty estimation.
Area of Science:
- Materials Science
- Computational Materials Science
- Machine Learning Applications
Background:
- High-throughput materials characterization accelerates materials discovery.
- Machine learning (ML) is crucial for high-throughput characterization but faces challenges with limited labeled experimental data and prediction uncertainty.
- Adapting ML models from simulation to real-world experiments is difficult due to data discrepancies.
Purpose of the Study:
- To develop a novel approach for adapting ML models trained on simulation data to analyze experimental data, even with limited labels.
- To incorporate uncertainty estimation into ML models for more reliable predictions in experimental settings.
- To address the scarcity of labeled experimental data in ML-driven materials discovery.
Main Methods:
- Developed Uncertainty-aware Simulation-to-Experiment Modeling (USEM).
- Employed adversarial domain adaptation in the latent space to bridge simulation-experiment data gaps.
- Integrated spectral-normalized neural Gaussian processes (SNGP) for predictive uncertainty quantification.
Main Results:
- Demonstrated effective adaptation of ML models from simulation to experimental X-ray diffraction (XRD) data.
- Achieved improved predictive accuracy on experimental data.
- Successfully identified out-of-distribution samples, enhancing model trustworthiness.
- Showcased the ability to analyze unlabeled or sparsely labeled experimental data.
Conclusions:
- USEM provides a scalable and trustworthy solution for high-throughput characterization in ML-driven materials discovery.
- The approach enhances the practical application of ML in experimental materials science by overcoming data limitations and uncertainty issues.
- USEM facilitates more reliable and efficient materials discovery through improved ML model performance on experimental data.
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