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Predicting temporal stability and resilience from resistance and recovery
Forest Isbell1, Akira S Mori2, Michel Loreau3,4
1Department of Ecology, Evolution, and Behavior, University of Minnesota, St. Paul, MN, USA. isbell@umn.edu.
Nature
|May 6, 2026
Summary
Temporal stability in ecosystems can often be predicted by resistance alone, even without recovery data. Resilience, however, requires both resistance and recovery components for accurate prediction.
Area of Science:
- Ecology
- Environmental Science
- Systems Biology
Background:
- Temporal stability, the invariability of systems over time, is crucial for natural and social systems.
- Stability can be enhanced through resistance to perturbations and rapid recovery.
- Resilience, defined as proximity to unperturbed states post-perturbation, also involves resistance and recovery.
Purpose of the Study:
- To develop and test predictions on how temporal stability and resilience depend on their resistance and recovery components.
- To investigate the predictive power of resistance and recovery for ecosystem stability and resilience.
- To explore the relationship between temporal stability and drought resistance.
Main Methods:
- Utilized plant productivity data from a long-term biodiversity experiment.
- Quantified long-term temporal stability at ecosystem and species levels over 25 years.
- Assessed the predictive accuracy of resistance and recovery components for stability and resilience.
Main Results:
- Temporal stability was moderately predicted by single-year resistance estimates alone, with slight improvement when recovery was included.
- Resilience was moderately predicted by a combination of ecosystem-level resistance and recovery.
- Ecosystem drought resistance could be forecasted by monitoring temporal stability prior to drought events.
Conclusions:
- Long-term temporal stability and short-term resistance are often predictable from one another.
- Resistance and recovery mechanisms can be leveraged to enhance the stability of natural and managed systems.
- Temporal stability serves as a potential early indicator for ecosystem drought resistance.
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