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Deforestation-induced drying lowers Amazon climate threshold
Nico Wunderling1,2,3, Boris Sakschewski4, Johan Rockström4,5,6
1Center for Critical Computational Studies, Goethe University Frankfurt, Frankfurt am Main, Germany. wunderling@c3s.uni-frankfurt.de.
Nature
|May 6, 2026
Summary
Global warming and deforestation pose significant threats to the Amazon forest. Even moderate warming (1.5-1.9°C) combined with deforestation could trigger widespread ecosystem collapse.
Area of Science:
- Ecology
- Climate Science
- Dynamical Systems Modeling
Background:
- The Amazon forest faces unprecedented pressure from global warming and land-use changes.
- These pressures may induce self-reinforcing transitions, leading to system-wide ecosystem shifts.
Purpose of the Study:
- To assess transition risks to degraded ecosystems in the Amazon biome.
- To evaluate risks under different Shared Socioeconomic Pathways using a dynamical systems model.
Main Methods:
- Applied a dynamical systems model to assess Amazon forest transition risks.
- Utilized an atmospheric moisture-tracking model to simulate moisture transport under various emission scenarios.
- Analyzed risks with and without considering deforestation.
Main Results:
- A critical global warming threshold of 3.7-4.0°C risks Amazon forest stability without deforestation.
- With 22-28% deforestation, a 1.5-1.9°C warming threshold could trigger a 62-77% system-wide transition.
- Transitions are driven by cascading effects of increased drought intensity over large distances.
Conclusions:
- Urgent need to limit global warming below 1.5°C and halt deforestation.
- Ecological restoration of degraded forests is crucial to mitigate high transition risks.
- The Amazon biome is highly sensitive to combined climate and land-use change pressures.
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