Estimated Impacts of Rotavirus Vaccine Recommendation Changes in the U.S

In January 2026, the United States Department of Health and Human Services downgraded the recommendation for infant immunization with rotavirus vaccine to one of shared clinical decision-making. We use a validated model for the transmission dynamics of rotavirus to predict the magnitude and timing of increases in the number of rotavirus hospitalizations in the US and in representative states given possible decreases in vaccine coverage. Rotavirus hospitalizations are likely to increase within two to three years following a drop in vaccine coverage, resulting in over 200,000 hospitalizations between July 2026-June 2031 if coverage were to drop to 20%. The burden is likely to fall disproportionately on southern states that currently experience higher rates of rotavirus hospitalization.