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Pan-African model explains Homo sapiens genetic and morphological evolution
Cecilia Padilla-Iglesias1,2,3,4, Zhe Xue1, Michela Leonardi1,5
1Evolutionary Ecology Group, Department of Zoology, University of Cambridge, Downing Street, Cambridge, CB2 3EJ, UK.
Biorxiv : the Preprint Server for Biology
|May 7, 2026
Summary
Homo sapiens likely originated from multiple African populations, not a single region. Climate changes drove population dynamics and diversification over 200,000 years.
Area of Science:
- Human evolution
- Population genetics
- Paleoanthropology
Background:
- Traditional single-region origin models for Homo sapiens are being challenged.
- Evidence suggests a multi-regional origin within Africa with intermittent gene flow.
- Understanding metapopulation dynamics and evolutionary drivers remains limited.
Purpose of the Study:
- To reconstruct Pan-African metapopulation dynamics over the last 200,000 years.
- To identify drivers of human population evolution and diversification.
- To quantitatively model regional contributions to Homo sapiens origins.
Main Methods:
- Integrated ecological niche modeling with archaeological data.
- Employed a spatially explicit population genetic framework.
- Calibrated models using contemporary and ancient African hunter-gatherer genomes.
Main Results:
- Provided a complete reconstruction of metapopulation dynamics over 200,000 years.
- Inferred dynamics explain divergence in available African genomes.
- Accurately predicted craniometric diversification patterns across Africa.
- Linked climate-driven changes in population size and connectivity to diversification.
Conclusions:
- Supports a multi-regional origin for Homo sapiens within Africa.
- Climate change significantly influenced population dynamics and diversification.
- The study offers a quantitative framework for understanding human origins.
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