Analysis of the Risk Factors for Short-Term Outcomes in Acute Small Bowel Obstruction: A Retrospective Study

As the lack of analysis on risk factors for the short-term outcomes of acute small bowel obstruction (ASBO), the current high readmission rate and severe postoperative complications of ASBO seriously affect the quality of life of patients. Risk-scoring models for evaluating the short-term outcomes of ASBO are still urgently needed.

A total of 278 patients diagnosed with complete ASBO were included in this study. Cox proportional hazards regression analysis was used to construct predictive models for the length of stay (LOS) and the length of short-term recurrence (LOR). The receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves and the area under the curve (AUC) were calculated to assess the performance.

The mean LOS of 278 patients was 11.19 days, and 17 patients (6.1%) were readmitted. Multivariate analysis showed that longer duration of disease (Hazard ratio, HR = 1.551), low albumin (HR = 1.681), high lumen diameter(max) (HR = 1.477), low chlorine (HR = 1.046), and operation (HR = 7.456) were risk factors for LOS. Calcium (HR = 29.391) was an independent risk factor for LOR. Operation is not a risk factor for LOR. A risk-scoring model of LOS (RS_LOS) was constructed to predict the posttreatment recovery (AUC, 30 days = 0.859). In the high-risk group, the severe adverse events (SAE) rate reached 17.1%, exceeding 1.4% in the low-risk group. The performance of RS_LOR was also satisfactory (AUC, 12 months = 0.802). In the high-risk group, the recurrence rate reached 14.3%, nearly triple that in the low-risk group (3.4%).

The risk-scoring models of LOS and LOR provide a comprehensive evaluation on the short-term outcomes of ASBO treatment.