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Updated: May 9, 2026
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Published on: August 5, 2016
Dynamic segmentation of the Sagaing fault.
Mingqi Liu1, Binhao Wang1, Sezim E Guvercin1
1Department of Earth Sciences, University of Southern California, Los Angeles, CA, USA.
Science (New York, N.Y.)
|May 7, 2026
Summary
Dynamic segmentation on the Sagaing fault, which caused the 2025 Mandalay earthquake, is driven by increasing slip rates. This finding improves seismic hazard assessment for fault systems.
Area of Science:
- Geophysics
- Seismology
- Tectonics
Background:
- The Sagaing fault exhibits dynamic segmentation, influencing earthquake behavior despite its simple structure.
- The 2025 moment magnitude 7.7 Mandalay earthquake ruptured the Sagaing fault.
Purpose of the Study:
- To test the hypothesis that northward increasing slip rates influence dynamic segmentation on the Sagaing fault.
- To understand the role of slip rate variations in earthquake recurrence and maximum magnitudes.
Main Methods:
- Physics-based seismic cycle simulations.
- Integration of geodetic, geological, and seismological data.
- Modeling of historical earthquake rupture extents and mainshock slip distribution.
Main Results:
- Models with geodetically constrained slip rates (18-28 mm/yr) successfully reproduced observed earthquake behavior.
- Slip rate contrasts of 10-20% between segments are sufficient to initiate dynamic segmentation.
- Dynamic segmentation regulates earthquake recurrence and maximum magnitudes.
Conclusions:
- Northward increasing slip rates are a key factor in the dynamic segmentation of the Sagaing fault.
- Heterogeneous stress accumulation due to slip rate variations drives segmentation.
- Integrating diverse observational data is crucial for accurate seismic hazard assessment.
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