The impact of heat and cold on mortality and life expectancy in Europe, 2015-2024

This paper analyzes the effects of temperatures on mortality and life expectancy using data on 40 million deaths in 28 European countries between 2015 and 2024. The findings indicate that both cold and hot temperatures increase mortality rates, with cold having a stronger overall effect. Heat-related mortality tends to be immediate, whereas cold-related effects are more delayed and prolonged. Climate and income are key moderators: cold-related mortality is higher in warmer regions, heat-related mortality is higher in colder regions, and the effects of cold are stronger at lower income levels. The study also shows that the number of deaths in 2015-2024 would have been higher under the climate conditions of 1950-1979. The shift in the temperature distribution increased mortality during the warmest months but reduced mortality during the colder months, yielding a net decrease of more than 900,000 deaths over the 2015-2024 period. This reduction corresponds to an average increase in life expectancy at birth of 0.195 years.