Related Experiment Video
Updated: May 9, 2026
13:04
Measuring the Subjective Value of Risky and Ambiguous Options using Experimental Economics and Functional MRI Methods
Published on: September 19, 2012
Generated outcomes in risky choice reveal biased sampling and sequential dependencies
Jake Spicer1, Yun-Xiao Li2, Lucas Castillo2
1Department of Psychology, University of Warwick, Coventry, UK. jake.spicer@warwick.ac.uk.
Communications Psychology
|May 7, 2026
Summary
People systematically bias their thinking by over-generating rare outcomes and under-generating common ones when making decisions. This generation process influences their final choices, impacting decision-making models.
Area of Science:
- Cognitive Psychology
- Behavioral Economics
- Decision Science
Background:
- Decision-making models often use mental sampling mechanisms.
- The precise sampling process, including probability matching, remains debated.
Purpose of the Study:
- To investigate the mental sampling process in decision-making.
- To assess how generating potential outcomes influences choice selection.
Main Methods:
- Two experiments were conducted with online samples (N=52, N=51).
- Participants repeatedly generated potential outcomes from monetary gambles before making a choice.
- Analysis focused on generation patterns and their relation to subsequent choices.
Main Results:
- Participants over-generated rarer outcomes and under-generated common outcomes.
- Avoidance of direct repetition of generated outcomes was observed.
- Generated outcomes influenced choice, with participants favoring options of higher average utility.
Conclusions:
- Systematic biases exist in the information considered during decision-making.
- Explicit generation tasks provide valuable insights into underlying choice processes.
- Findings offer new assessments for mental sampling theories of decision-making.
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