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PneumoScore: Risk Prediction Model for 90-Day Mortality After Lung Resection
Renata Matheus Faccioli1,2, Luisa Mendes Heise3, Leticia Leone Lauricella1
1Department of Thoracic Surgery, Clinics Hospital, University of São Paulo Medical School, São Paulo, Brazil.
Annals of Surgical Oncology
|May 7, 2026
Summary
A new model, PneumoScore, accurately predicts 90-day mortality after lung cancer resection. This tool aids surgeons in preoperative risk assessment for thoracic surgery patients.
Area of Science:
- Thoracic Surgery
- Oncology
- Medical Informatics
Background:
- Lung resection is standard for early lung cancer but has high mortality.
- Accurate preoperative risk prediction is crucial for patient outcomes.
- Existing models may not fully capture mortality risk after lung cancer surgery.
Purpose of the Study:
- To develop and validate a novel model for predicting 90-day mortality after lung cancer resection.
- To compare the performance of the novel model against established risk prediction tools.
- To improve preoperative risk stratification in patients undergoing lung cancer surgery.
Main Methods:
- Data from 2001 patients undergoing lung resection were analyzed from the Brazilian Lung Cancer Registry.
- A logistic regression model (PneumoScore) was developed using training data (70%) and validated on testing data (30%).
- Model performance was evaluated using AUROC, AUPR, Brier Score, BSS, calibration slope, and intercept.
Main Results:
- PneumoScore, incorporating factors like age, comorbidities, and surgical approach, achieved an AUROC of 0.84.
- The model demonstrated strong predictive accuracy with an AUPR of 0.99 and a Brier Skill Score of 0.256.
- PneumoScore showed excellent calibration with a slope of 1.067.
Conclusions:
- PneumoScore exhibits excellent performance in predicting critical 90-day postoperative mortality after lung cancer resection.
- The model has the potential to significantly enhance preoperative evaluation and decision-making in thoracic surgery.
- This novel tool addresses an underexplored but vital outcome in lung cancer treatment.
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