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Will It Survive? Evaluating the Effects of Damage and Silviculture on Tree Seedling Survival Using Multi-State Models
Emilie Champagne1, Daniel Dumais1, Geneviève Picher1
1Direction de la recherche forestière Ministère des Ressources naturelles et des Forêts Ville de Québec Canada.
Ecology and Evolution
|May 8, 2026
Summary
Plantation tree survival depends on damage history. Earlier and frequent damage reduces survival and recovery, but silvicultural treatments can mitigate risks. Damage rates indicate plantation success.
Area of Science:
- Forestry and Silviculture
- Ecology
- Plant Pathology
Background:
- Plantations are crucial for adaptive silviculture, aiding climate change adaptation but requiring significant investment with uncertain outcomes.
- Understanding the relationship between damage from various agents and seedling survival, and how silvicultural treatments influence this 'damage history', is critical.
- Current knowledge gaps exist regarding the global impact of abiotic and biotic damage on plantation establishment and resilience.
Purpose of the Study:
- To investigate the effects of damage timing and frequency on planted tree survival.
- To analyze how silvicultural treatments modulate the 'damage history' of seedlings.
- To utilize multi-state models to assess seedling transitions between 'Healthy', 'Damaged', and 'Dead' states.
Main Methods:
- A 6-year survey was conducted within an assisted migration experiment involving eight tree species.
- Seedlings were categorized annually (fall) as 'Healthy', 'Damaged', or 'Dead'.
- Multi-state models, adapted from medical epidemiology, were employed to analyze survival and recovery dynamics.
Main Results:
- Seedling survival and recovery decreased with earlier and more frequent damage across most species.
- Shade-intolerant species showed reduced damage, mortality, and higher recovery in patch clearcuts compared to shelterwood cuts.
- Shade-tolerant species benefited from open light conditions, facilitating establishment and potentially improving resilience.
Conclusions:
- Providing optimal environmental conditions for rapid seedling establishment is vital for enhancing their ability to withstand damage.
- The concept of 'damage history', analyzed through damage and recovery rates, can serve as an early indicator of plantation success.
- Silvicultural treatments significantly influence seedling damage and recovery, guiding adaptive management strategies for future forest plantations.
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