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Updated: May 10, 2026

Establishing a Competing Risk Regression Nomogram Model for Survival Data
04:57

Establishing a Competing Risk Regression Nomogram Model for Survival Data

Published on: October 23, 2020

Cardiac-specific mortality prediction in adolescents and young adults with classical hodgkin lymphoma: a nomogram

Rui Yan1,2, Jiaying Niu3, Weijia Zhang4

  • 1Department of Nuclear Medicine, First Hospital of Shanxi Medical University, Taiyuan, 030001, Shanxi, China. yanrui@sxmu.edu.cn.

Scientific Reports
|May 8, 2026
PubMed

Insights

A new nomogram predicts cardiac-specific mortality (CSM) in adolescents and young adults with classical Hodgkin lymphoma (cHL). This tool helps manage cardiac risks as survival improves for these young cancer patients.

Area of Science:

  • Oncology
  • Cardiology
  • Epidemiology

Background:

  • Improved survival in classical Hodgkin lymphoma (cHL) has shifted focus to non-relapse mortality.
  • Cardiac disease is a major cause of death in cHL survivors, but risk in adolescents and young adults (AYAs) is not well understood.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To develop and validate a predictive tool for cardiac-specific mortality (CSM) in AYAs diagnosed with cHL.
  • To identify key risk factors associated with CSM in this specific patient population.

Main Methods:

  • Utilized the SEER database with a training cohort (7,475 patients) and a validation cohort (3,205 patients).
  • Employed a Fine-Gray competing risk model to analyze cumulative incidence of CSM versus cHL.
  • Developed a nomogram incorporating demographic and treatment factors to predict CSM risk.

Main Results:

  • Cumulative incidence of CSM exceeded that of cHL over time in AYAs with cHL.
  • Identified Black race, male sex, older age, earlier diagnosis year, and radiotherapy as significant risk factors for CSM.
  • The nomogram demonstrated strong discriminatory ability and clinical utility for predicting 15- and 25-year CSM risk.

Conclusions:

  • A validated nomogram can accurately predict CSM in AYAs with cHL.
  • The tool aids physicians in identifying high-risk patients and managing clinical risk factors.
  • This predictive model supports personalized risk assessment and management strategies for AYAs with cHL.

Keywords:
Cardiac-specific mortalityClassical Hodgkin LymphomaCompeting risk analysisNomogramSEER database

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