A socio-hydrological system analysis to classify the state of water insecurity in the Awash River Basin, Ethiopia

Water insecurity poses challenges to human livelihoods and environmental health in areas disproportionately affected by climate change. The Awash River Basin, located in the arid and semi-arid region of Ethiopia, is experiencing more frequent droughts and floods because of climate change. The basin is also at high risk of pollution due to rapid urbanization and industrial development. This study aims to assess the level of water insecurity in the basin by analyzing different variables related to climate extremes, water scarcity, and environmental degradation. We adapted a socio-ecological framework (SES) into a socio-hydrological framework (SHS) to synthesize the contributing hydro-climatic variables. Theoretically, redefining SES with respect to water security is used for synthesizing SHS. The theoretical approach needs further proof. The variables were then subjected to a weighted overlay analysis, a process that resulted in the delineation of six distinct scales of water insecurity. The results indicated that the northwestern headwaters and the highlands in the southeastern part of the basin are relatively water secure, whereas the middle and downstream areas experience the highest level of water insecurity. Areas between the headwaters and the middle part of the basin fall under the moderately water-insecure zone. This prioritization of water insecurity will serve as a valuable guide for the national and international agencies in planning and implementing water security interventions across the basin. The study emphasizes the application of a modified socio-ecological framework tool for further assessments in water-security-related planning and development activities.