Shifting from concentration-based to health-oriented air pollution control in China
Zhaoxin Dong1, Shuxiao Wang2, Haotian Zheng3
1School of Environment and Energy, South China University of Technology, Guangzhou Higher Education Mega Center, Guangzhou 510006, China; State Key Laboratory of Regional Environment and Sustainability, School of Environment, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China.
Science Bulletin
|May 9, 2026
Summary
New air pollution policies are needed to address health impacts. A Dynamic Response Surface Model (DRSM) shows current strategies in China are insufficient, requiring significant emission cuts and a shift in focus to central regions for better health outcomes.
Area of Science:
- Environmental Science
- Public Health
- Policy Analysis
Background:
- Global focus shifts from air quality attainment to mitigating health impacts of air pollution.
- Existing policy tools rely on static vulnerability assessments, failing to account for demographic and socioeconomic changes.
- Urgent need for advanced policy tools to address rising pollution-related mortality.
Purpose of the Study:
- Introduce a Dynamic Response Surface Model (DRSM) for health-oriented air pollution control.
- Integrate time-varying demographics, atmospheric chemistry, and pollution transport into a unified decision framework.
- Evaluate current air pollution control strategies and propose optimized mitigation pathways.
Main Methods:
- Developed a Dynamic Response Surface Model (DRSM) integrating age structure, atmospheric chemistry, and interregional transport.
- Applied the DRSM to analyze air pollution and health burdens in China.
- Modeled emission reduction scenarios and assessed cost-effectiveness of mitigation strategies.
Main Results:
- Current policies in China are inadequate to reduce health burdens, with population vulnerability offsetting emission reduction benefits.
- Significant annual emission reductions are required: 2.7% for PM2.5 precursors and 5.8% for ozone precursors.
- A health-optimized pathway for 2035 shows high cost-effectiveness by shifting control priorities to central China.
Conclusions:
- The DRSM offers a new paradigm for air quality governance, prioritizing health and equity.
- Policy success should be redefined by cost-effective and equitable improvements in health and longevity.
- Strategic reallocation of control efforts can correct spatial imbalances and enhance mitigation effectiveness.
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