National-scale evidence for rapid cotton yield gains under sustainable intensification in Uzbekistan

Uzbekistan's cotton sector experienced a rapid increase in productivity between 2021 and 2025, during a wave of reforms that accelerated the adoption of modern cultivars and more intensive management practices. We quantified time-series trends in yield, cultivated area, technology, and economic impacts across agro-climatic zones using national production records. National average yield rose from 3.24 to 4.55 t ha^-1 (+ 40.4%); total output increased by 19.3%, despite a 15.1% cut in cultivated land. Separate regression analysis suggested a two-phase fit with an inflexion around 2024, coinciding with reform measures, but formal breakpoint tests did not reach statistical significance. Over the study period, the share of planted area for advanced technologies such as RNAi- and marker-assisted selection (MAS) cultivars and imported Bt/glyphosate-tolerant (Bt/Gt) materials increased to ~ 38.51% by 2025; these technology groups achieved higher mean yields than traditional cultivars. The genotype × environment and stability analyses revealed generally consistent cultivar rankings across regions, indicating the broad adaptability of the dominant cultivars. Economic analysis also indicated that intensified systems reduced input costs and increased profitability. Taken together, these national-scale observational results document a short reform-era episode in which productivity rose despite area reduction, coinciding with rapid technology diffusion and management reform. We interpret this period as evidence of the feasibility of sustainable intensification under irrigated cotton systems, while recognising that longer time series are needed to assess persistence and long-term structural change.