Spatiotemporal patterns and forecasted trends of dengue in Saudi Arabia: a national surveillance study, 2012-2024

Dengue fever remains a significant public health issue in Saudi Arabia, with the majority of the infections occurring in the western urban centers. This study investigates the long-term trends from 2012 to 2024. Using the surveillance data from the Saudi Ministry of Health, the authors employed descriptive statistics, segmented log-linear regression, a spatial analysis across 20 health regions, Seasonal Trend Decomposition by Loess (STL) decomposition, and Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) models to forecast up to 2030. From 2012 to 2024, the total reported infections were 63,312. Dengue fever incidence increased from 5.99 to 17.01 per 100,000 population, with considerable annual variation and a peak in 2023. Dengue fever infections were concentrated in the western coastal regions, among males, non-Saudi nationals, and those aged 15 to below 45 years. Between March and May, a regular seasonal peak took place. Forecasts indicate that seasonal variation will persist through 2030 within previously noted ranges. Saudi Arabia's dengue epidemiology is marked by episodic amplification rather than structural transformation, steady seasonality, and ongoing regional concentration.