Water-Nitrogen-Biochar Management Enhances Sustainable Greenhouse Tomato Production Under Future Climates

Optimizing water-nitrogen-biochar (W-N-B) management is essential for achieving sustainable greenhouse tomato production under climate change. This study assessed long-term changes in soil organic carbon (SOC), greenhouse gas fluxes, and tomato yield under three Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5) during 2025-2100 and evaluated trade-offs among carbon mitigation, productivity, and resource use efficiency. The results showed that biochar application consistently increased tomato yield and SOC while reducing CO₂ and N₂O emissions, whereas irrigation and nitrogen input primarily influenced yield formation and N₂O emissions. Among the three climate scenarios, SSP1-2.6 produced the greatest cobenefits, with yield increasing by 4.16%, SOC rising by 0.73%, and global warming potential decreasing by 18.6%. The optimal W-N-B management strategies were identified as W1N3B3 under SSP1-2.6, W2N2B2 under SSP2-4.5, and W2N3B3 under SSP5-8.5. These findings provide scientific support for developing high-yield and low-carbon greenhouse agriculture in arid regions of Northwest China.