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Uncertainty: Confidence Intervals00:54

Uncertainty: Confidence Intervals

The confidence interval is the range of values around the mean that contains the true mean. It is expressed as a probability percentage. The interpretation of a 95% confidence interval, for instance, is that the statistician is 95% confident that the true mean falls within the interval. The upper and lower limits of this range are known as confidence limits. The confidence limits for the true mean are estimated from the sample's mean, the standard deviation, and the statistical factor 't,' or...

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Improving confidence in MRI-based auto-segmentation via uncertainty assessment.

Jesper Folsted Kallehauge1, Jintao Ren2, Yasmin Lassen-Ramshad3

  • 1Danish Centre for Particle Therapy, Aarhus University Hospital, Aarhus, Denmark; Department of Clinical Medicine, Aarhus University, Aarhus, Denmark. jespkall@rm.dk.

Acta Oncologica (Stockholm, Sweden)
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A new deep learning model, ResEncM, improves the reliability and calibration of automated brain organ segmentation for radiotherapy. It accurately identifies organs at risk while highlighting uncertain areas for safer clinical use.

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Area of Science:

  • Medical Imaging
  • Radiotherapy
  • Artificial Intelligence

Background:

  • Accurate delineation of organs of interest (OOIs) is critical for safe radiotherapy planning.
  • Deep learning models achieve high geometric accuracy but often lack reliable uncertainty quantification, hindering clinical translation.
  • Overconfident predictions in ambiguous regions necessitate improved model calibration for clinical workflows.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To compare the standard nnU-Netv2 against its residual-encoding variant (ResEncM) for automated brain OOI segmentation.
  • To evaluate if ResEncM offers superior reliability and calibration while maintaining geometric accuracy.
  • To assess the clinical utility of uncertainty quantification in deep learning segmentation for radiotherapy.

Main Methods:

  • T1-weighted contrast-enhanced MRI scans from 70 brain cancer patients were utilized.
  • Ground-truth contours for brainstem, hippocampi, chiasm, optic nerves, optic tracts, and pituitary were delineated.
  • Epistemic uncertainty was quantified using mutual information, and Expected Calibration Error (ECE) was computed.

Main Results:

  • Both models achieved high geometric accuracy (Dice Similarity Coefficient > 0.81 for large structures).
  • ResEncM demonstrated significantly lower epistemic uncertainty and ensemble variance across all structures.
  • ResEncM showed significantly reduced ECE for the optic chiasm, optic tracts, and pituitary.

Conclusions:

  • Integrating a deep residual encoder enhances the reliability and calibration of automated brain OOI contours.
  • The ResEncM architecture provides a more trustworthy tool for clinical radiotherapy by reliably flagging high-uncertainty voxels.
  • This approach supports confidence-aware clinical workflows in radiotherapy planning.