Current Protections and Future Threats to Say's Spiketail Habitat in the Southeastern USA

Dragonflies and damselflies are important indicators of ecological integrity and environmental quality but remain underrepresented in conservation efforts, in part due to a lack of quantitative information regarding their habitat requirements. Species distribution models (SDMs) can facilitate conservation planning by allowing researchers to estimate habitat suitability, evaluate conservation status, and quantify future threats. Using Maxent, we developed a range-wide SDM for an imperiled North American dragonfly (Zoraena sayi) to estimate the extent and distribution of potential breeding habitat. To capture the full spectrum of habitats used by Z. sayi across their multi-stage life cycle, we additionally extended the predicted area to include potential terrestrial habitat used by adults within the surrounding landscape, thereby producing a holistic model of breeding (nymph) and terrestrial (adult) habitats. We then used this combined model to quantify coverage by existing protected areas and evaluate projected impacts from urbanization. We found that of the combined model area (2731 km²), only 30% is safeguarded by existing protected areas, with 50% of the remaining unprotected habitat projected to experience impacts from urbanization by 2070. Our model represents the first comprehensive assessment of suitable habitat for Z. sayi and may be useful in guiding conservation planning aimed at effectively safeguarding suitable habitat and preserving remaining populations.