Spatiotemporal evolution of a pine wilt disease model integrating infectious disease transmission and predator-prey...

Previous modeling studies on pine wilt disease have largely been confined to either standalone epidemic models or predator-prey models, overlooking the coupling between these two mechanisms within the ecosystem. A coupled model is developed that integrates predator-prey interactions with the transmission mechanism of pine wilt disease, thereby enabling a more accurate representation of the spatiotemporal dynamics of biological control and disease transmission. The theoretical analysis primarily establishes that, under given threshold conditions, several key subsystems are persistent, and further proves the existence of steady states for the full system. Numerical simulations, implemented using COMSOL Multiphysics, successfully reproduced the spatiotemporal evolution of pine wilt disease on a two-dimensional geographical map of Liaoning Province, China. In the absence of predators, the simulated results are consistent with actual observational data, whereas the disease is effectively suppressed when predators are introduced. Based on the optimal control theory for parabolic systems and the results of numerical simulations, this study further systematically analyzes optimal strategy selection for pine wilt disease management: (1) When predators have been introduced, the additional benefit of supplementary human control may be limited; (2) If the goal is ecological effectiveness alone, biological control by predator introduction should be prioritized; (3) According to cost-effectiveness analysis and the decision-maker's willingness-to-pay, biological control is preferred when the cost of predator introduction is below a threshold; otherwise, human control is more economically justified.