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Published on: October 28, 2022
2024 global temperature record is consistent with model-predicted warming
Michael E Mann1, Byron A Steinman2, Alejandro Fernandez3
1Department of Earth and Environmental Science, University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, PA 19104.
Summary
Recent global temperature records, like 2024, had a low likelihood without human-caused warming. These events were not entirely anomalous, except for 1998, highlighting the impact of climate change.
Area of Science:
- Climate Science
- Atmospheric Science
- Environmental Science
Background:
- Recent years have seen record-breaking global temperatures.
- Understanding the probability of these extreme events is crucial for climate change assessment.
Purpose of the Study:
- To assess the likelihood of recent global temperature records.
- To determine the influence of anthropogenic warming on extreme temperature events.
Main Methods:
- A semiempirical approach combining climate model simulations and observational temperatures.
- Monte Carlo simulations to generate global temperature series.
- Utilizing data from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) multimodel simulations.
Main Results:
- The 2024 global temperature record had a ~12% likelihood, similar to 2016 (~14%).
- The 1998 record was found to be truly anomalous (~2.5% likelihood).
- All recent record years were nearly impossible without human-caused warming.
Conclusions:
- Recent extreme global temperatures are highly improbable without anthropogenic influence.
- While El Niño events boost temperatures, human-caused warming is the primary driver of record-breaking years.
- The study underscores the significant impact of human activities on global temperature extremes.
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