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Global and regional climate modes modulate armed conflict risk
Tyler E Bagwell1, Sylvia G Dee2, Xinyue Luo3
1Department of Statistics, Rice University, Houston, TX 77005.
Summary
Climate variability, including El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), significantly influences armed conflict risk. Specific hydroclimatic anomalies, particularly dry conditions during El Niño, heighten conflict, especially in vulnerable regions.
Area of Science:
- Climate science and political science intersection
- Environmental influences on social instability
- Global climate variability impacts
Background:
- Modes of climate variability (e.g., ENSO, IOD) impact weather patterns, potentially leading to social instability like droughts, famines, and floods.
- The precise mechanisms linking climate variability to armed conflict are debated, often overshadowed by sociopolitical and economic factors.
- Previous studies used coarse data, limiting understanding of specific climate hazards and regional variability effects on conflict.
Purpose of the Study:
- To investigate whether distinct climate hazards are associated with increased conflict risk.
- To determine if conflict risk scales with the intensity of climate hazard exposure.
- To analyze the influence of regional climate variability on conflict emergence.
Main Methods:
- Empirical modeling utilizing a high-resolution gridded dataset of armed conflicts.
- Leveraging the natural experiment of two major climate modes: El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD).
- Analyzing systematic hydroclimatic anomalies and their correlation with conflict emergence.
Main Results:
- Conflict risk increases during El Niño events, but the relationship is not always linear and varies with spatial aggregation.
- El Niño's impact on conflict risk is primarily linked to its dry teleconnections, with minimal evidence from wet teleconnections.
- The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) also influences conflict, with both positive and negative phases elevating risk in regions like the Horn of Africa and Southeast Asia.
Conclusions:
- Modes of climate variability differentially shape conflict risk, highlighting specific vulnerabilities.
- Hydroclimatic anomalies, driven by ENSO and IOD, are significant factors in conflict emergence.
- Findings provide insights into societal vulnerability to natural climate fluctuations and implications for anthropogenic climate change.
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