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Projecting National Outpatient Health Expenditures Under Health Literacy Improvement Scenarios: A Simulation Study.
Seokjun Moon1, Hansol Jang1, Junghun Yoo1
1Department of Health Care Policy Research, Korea Institute for Health and Social Affairs, Sejong, Republic of Korea.
Summary
Achieving South Korea's health literacy target could save KRW 1.70 trillion by 2030. Improving health literacy may reduce national outpatient healthcare expenditure and enhance system efficiency.
Area of Science:
- Health Economics
- Public Health Policy
- Health Literacy Research
Background:
- South Korea's Health Plan 2030 aims to increase sufficient health literacy among adults to 70% by 2030.
- Low health literacy is associated with higher healthcare expenditure.
Purpose of the Study:
- To project the impact of achieving the national health literacy target on national outpatient healthcare expenditure.
- To estimate potential cost savings associated with improved health literacy.
Main Methods:
- Scenario-based simulation using an ARIMA(1,1,1) model fitted to national health accounts data (1970-2022).
- Comparison of a status quo scenario with a policy target scenario (linear increase in health literacy).
- Application of an 8.6% expenditure differential between health literacy groups, with sensitivity analyses.
Main Results:
- Projected national outpatient expenditure of KRW 91.2 trillion (status quo) vs. KRW 89.5 trillion (policy target) by 2030.
- Estimated savings of KRW 1.70 trillion (1.9%) under the policy target scenario.
- Sensitivity analyses indicated potential savings ranging from KRW 0.25 to 3.15 trillion.
Conclusions:
- Achieving the 70% health literacy target may lead to significant reductions in outpatient healthcare expenditure.
- Improved health literacy has the potential to enhance the efficiency of the healthcare system.
- Findings are conditional on modeling assumptions and do not imply causality.
Keywords:
ARIMA modelhealth literacyhealthcare system efficiencyoutpatient expenditurescenario-based simulationMore Related Videos
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