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Updated: May 13, 2026
20:36
Predicting the Effectiveness of Population Replacement Strategy Using Mathematical Modeling
Published on: July 4, 2007
Translocation effects on regional and local population viability and connectivity
Eva Sánchez Arribas1,2, Aimara Planillo1,3, Joe Premier4
1Department of Ecological Dynamics, Leibniz Institute for Zoo and Wildlife Research (IZW), Berlin, Germany.
Summary
Translocations can boost Eurasian lynx (Lynx lynx) populations and connectivity in Europe. However, significant efforts are needed, including releasing at least 50 lynx in the Italian Alps, to establish crucial stepping-stone populations.
Area of Science:
- Conservation Biology
- Population Ecology
- Wildlife Management
Background:
- Isolated large carnivore populations often require translocations to improve genetic diversity and viability.
- Existing Eurasian lynx (Lynx lynx) populations in Europe are small, isolated, and exhibit low genetic diversity.
- The impact of past population reinforcements on lynx viability and connectivity remains largely undetermined.
Purpose of the Study:
- To develop and apply a framework for assessing the success of translocations in enhancing population viability and connectivity for the Eurasian lynx.
- To evaluate the impact of translocations on extinction probability and patch colonization.
- To estimate the minimum release population size required to establish a functional stepping-stone network across the Alps.
Main Methods:
- A spatially explicit, individual-based model was calibrated using observed lynx space use, survival, and reproductive rates.
- The model was validated with field data on population growth and expansion from 1970 to 2020.
- Simulations were conducted under scenarios with and without translocations to assess their effects on population stability and connectivity.
Main Results:
- Translocations positively influenced population viability and connectivity at a local scale for Eurasian lynx.
- Despite translocations, connectivity between eastern and western Alpine populations remained insufficient.
- Establishing a stepping-stone population to enhance trans-Alpine connectivity would require releasing approximately 13 males and 37 females in the Italian southeastern Alps.
Conclusions:
- Translocations are a valuable tool for improving the viability and connectivity of small, isolated Eurasian lynx populations.
- Substantial, coordinated releases are necessary to achieve landscape-scale connectivity, particularly across challenging geographical barriers like the Alps.
- Concerted transboundary management efforts are essential for the long-term survival and successful conservation of Eurasian lynx in western and central Europe.
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