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Social implications of the 30×30 global conservation target
Javier Fajardo1,2, Heather C Bingham3, Dan Brockington4,5,6
1Department of Geography and Conservation Research Institute, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK. fajardonjavier@gmail.com.
Nature Communications
|May 12, 2026
Summary
Target 3 of the Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework aims for 30% protected areas by 2030. Implementation will impact diverse populations, necessitating significant support for local residents and development funding.
Area of Science:
- Conservation Science
- Social-Ecological Systems Analysis
Background:
- The Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework's Target 3 seeks to expand protected and conserved areas to at least 30% by 2030.
- The social implications of achieving this target are contingent upon the governance and management of these new areas.
Purpose of the Study:
- To analyze the potential social impacts of implementing Target 3 under various scenarios.
- To assess the proximity of human populations to proposed protected areas based on different conservation strategies.
Main Methods:
- Scenario modeling to explore different approaches for achieving Target 3.
- Spatial analysis to quantify human populations living near potential protected areas.
- Assessment of population characteristics including Human Development Index (HDI) and reliance on wild harvesting.
Main Results:
- A biodiversity-focused scenario places nearly half the global population within 10 km of proposed areas.
- An Indigenous and traditional territories-based scenario affects 4% of the population, with significant portions in low HDI regions and high wild harvesting reliance.
- A nature's contributions to people scenario shows intermediate impacts.
Conclusions:
- Target 3 presents substantial social challenges alongside its ecological goals.
- Successful implementation requires substantial development funding and robust support systems for affected local communities.
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