Wildfire risk to United States cultural resources

Wildfire research and management typically emphasize risks to ecosystems and infrastructure, especially homes. Yet, communities and countries designate certain places and structures as culturally important for all; because they are often immovable and irreplaceable, they are uniquely at risk from wildfire. We present the first national-scale assessment of wildfire risk to cultural heritage assets in the U.S. Here, wildfire risk is defined as the spatial coincidence of cultural heritage resources and modeled wildfire hazard. Our analysis integrates high-resolution burn probability models from the Fire Simulation project with spatial data for 56,103 National Register of Historic Places (NRHP). Places were further assessed by type, reflecting potential cultural loss if destroyed, including buildings, districts, structures, objects, and sites. Places were also categorized by cultural significance (local, state, national) to evaluate how risk varies across levels of importance. Risk was concentrated in the western United States, with hotspots in the Southeast. Buildings and districts comprise 90% of listed resources and may be more vulnerable because their value depends on physical form; other resource types may be less vulnerable. Only 36% of exposed places are nationally significant; most are state or locally significant. By identifying where and what is most at risk, this study provides a foundation for proactive planning to safeguard the places that anchor community identity, collective memory, and national heritage before they are permanently lost.