Associations between economic crises and childhood vaccination coverage: Evidence from 160 countries, 2000-2019

Area of Science:

• Global Health
• Public Health Policy
• Macroeconomics

Background:

• Childhood vaccination is a critical public health intervention, preventing millions of deaths annually.
• Global vaccination coverage is inconsistent, and economic crises can disrupt healthcare systems and household finances, potentially hindering immunization efforts.
• Macroeconomic instability poses a significant threat to sustained vaccination programs.

Purpose of the Study:

• To investigate the association between economic crises (banking collapses, currency devaluations, sovereign debt crises) and childhood vaccination coverage.
• To analyze the short-term and long-term effects of different types of economic crises on immunization rates for DTP, Hepatitis B, Measles, and Polio.
• To identify specific economic crisis types with the most significant negative impact on vaccination coverage.

Main Methods:

• Utilized a cross-national time-series framework analyzing data from 160 countries between 2000 and 2019.
• Employed childhood vaccination coverage data from the World Health Organization (WHO) Immunization Data Portal.
• Incorporated data on economic crises, specifically banking collapses, currency devaluations, and sovereign debt crises, referencing Nguyen et al. (2022).

Main Results:

• Economic crises demonstrated a negative association with vaccination coverage across all examined vaccine types (DTP, Hepatitis B, Measles, Polio).
• These negative associations were primarily observed in the short term, with coverage often recovering as economies stabilized.
• Banking crises and sovereign debt crises exhibited the most substantial negative impacts on vaccination rates, while currency crises showed weaker links.

Conclusions:

• Macroeconomic instability, particularly banking and sovereign debt crises, poses a significant threat to childhood vaccination programs.
• Policy interventions are essential to safeguard immunization systems and ensure sustained coverage during periods of economic distress.
• Strengthening health systems resilience is vital to mitigate the adverse effects of economic crises on public health outcomes.