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Forecasting Patient-Specific Abdominal Aortic Aneurysm Geometry with Mixed-Effects Models
Juan C Restrepo1, Maria L Bolanos1, Seungik Baek2
1Department of Mechanical, Aerospace, and Industrial Engineering, The University of Texas at San Antonio, San Antonio, TX 78249, USA.
Diagnostics (Basel, Switzerland)
|May 13, 2026
Summary
This study introduces a patient-specific framework for forecasting abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA) geometry, improving surveillance by predicting local growth from imaging data. The model offers accurate 3D AAA forecasts, aiding in optimized clinical management.
Area of Science:
- Biomedical Engineering
- Medical Imaging Analysis
- Computational Fluid Dynamics
Background:
- Current abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA) surveillance relies on maximum diameter, neglecting regional remodeling and growth rate dynamics.
- This limitation hinders precise monitoring and timely intervention planning for AAA patients.
Purpose of the Study:
- To develop a patient-specific, geometry-based framework for forecasting 3D abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA) geometry.
- To address limitations in current AAA surveillance by providing localized, time-dependent growth rate information.
Main Methods:
- Utilized longitudinal clinical imaging to represent lumen and outer wall surfaces on a cylindrical grid.
- Implemented individualized linear mixed-effects models to capture global trends and regional heterogeneity in AAA growth.
- Evaluated forecast accuracy using Hausdorff distance (HD95) and global geometric scalars (diameter, volume) in a multicenter cohort of 79 patients.
Main Results:
- Achieved sub-millimetric HD95 spatial errors for AAA geometry forecasts.
- Demonstrated less than 6% error in predicting global geometric scalars like maximum diameter and volume.
- Developed the 'Aneurysm Forecasting Studio' for interactive visualization of AAA growth predictions.
Conclusions:
- AAA geometric remodeling can be approximated as locally linear over time, enabling accurate and rapid 3D forecasts.
- The developed framework supports optimized surveillance, precise threshold timing for intervention, and digital twin applications.
- This patient-specific approach enhances the understanding and management of abdominal aortic aneurysms.
