Interval Prediction of Remaining Useful Life Based on Uncertainty Quantification with Bayesian Convolutional Neural...

RUL prediction methods do not fully account for the uncertainties caused by data scarcity and inherent noise, and they also suffer from low reliability of RUL point estimates. To tackle these challenges, this paper proposes a Bayesian convolutional neural network with dual-output units for RUL interval predictions. The network employs the negative log-likelihood as the loss function. Thanks to its dual-output structure, it not only provides point estimates, but also quantifies the aleatoric uncertainty inherent in the data. During the training process, the CNN is reformulated using Bayesian principles, and the Bayes-by-backprop method is applied to train the network. This transformation converts model parameters from fixed values into random variables. As a result, epistemic uncertainty caused by model inaccuracies and limited data can be quantified. Experimental validation on the IEEE PHM Challenge 2012 dataset demonstrated that the proposed method achieved a higher prediction accuracy than state-of-the-art uncertainty-aware prediction approaches, demonstrating a better applicability in engineering practice.