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Apolipoprotein B/A1 Ratio for Predicting Major Adverse Cardiovascular Events in Coronary Artery Disease: Development
Hongxu Zhu1, Qi Jin1
1Department of Cardiology, Beijing Haidian Hospital, Beijing, 100080, People's Republic of China.
Insights
The apolipoprotein B/A1 ratio effectively predicts major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE) in coronary artery disease (CAD) patients post-percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI). A developed nomogram aids in risk stratification for improved cardiovascular risk assessment.
Area of Science:
- Cardiology
- Biomarkers
- Risk Prediction
Background:
- The apolipoprotein B to apolipoprotein A1 (ApoB/A1) ratio is a key lipid marker for cardiovascular risk.
- Patients with coronary artery disease (CAD) undergoing percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) require accurate risk assessment.
Purpose of the Study:
- To develop and validate a nomogram for predicting major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE).
- To incorporate the ApoB/A1 ratio into a predictive model for patients undergoing PCI.
Main Methods:
- Retrospective cohort study of 2459 patients undergoing PCI, split into training and validation sets.
- Utilized LASSO and multivariable Cox regression for variable selection and model building.
- Assessed model performance using C-index, calibration curves, and decision curve analysis.
Main Results:
- The ApoB/A1 ratio independently predicted MACE (HR 1.12; P<0.001).
- The nomogram showed good discrimination (C-index 0.67-0.72) and calibration.
- Risk stratification revealed significant differences in 5-year MACE-free survival rates (93.0% vs 89.9% vs 83.1%).
Conclusions:
- The ApoB/A1 ratio is a significant predictor of MACE in CAD patients post-PCI.
- The developed nomogram demonstrates potential for clinical risk prediction and stratification.
- Further external validation in prospective studies is recommended before clinical application.
Background:
The apolipoprotein B to apolipoprotein A1 (ApoB/A1) ratio has emerged as a superior lipid marker for cardiovascular risk assessment. This study aimed to develop and validate a nomogram incorporating the ApoB/A1 ratio for predicting major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE) in patients with coronary artery disease (CAD) undergoing percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI).
Methods:
This retrospective cohort study included 2459 patients undergoing PCI, randomly allocated to training (n=1721) and validation (n=738) cohorts. LASSO regression and multivariable Cox regression were used for variable selection and model development. Model performance was evaluated using C-index, calibration curves, and decision curve analysis.
Results:
During a median follow-up of 33.8 months, MACE occurred in 187 patients (7.6%). The ApoB/A1 ratio was independently associated with MACE (HR 1.12 per 0.1 increase, 95% CI 1.06-1.19, P<0.001). The nomogram incorporating 10 predictors demonstrated good discrimination (C-index: 0.67 in training, 0.72 in validation) and calibration. Decision curve analysis confirmed superior clinical utility across threshold probabilities of 5%-35%. Risk stratification showed distinct separation among low-, intermediate-, and high-risk groups, with 5-year MACE-free survival rates of 93.0%, 89.9%, and 83.1%, respectively (log-rank P<0.001).
Conclusion:
The ApoB/A1 ratio may be an independent predictor of MACE in CAD patients after PCI. The developed nomogram showed promising performance for risk prediction and stratification in this retrospective cohort. External validation in prospective studies is warranted before clinical implementation.
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