Sustainability impacts of green hydrogen production technology: An agent-based model simulation

Green hydrogen is increasingly considered a promising option for decarbonizing energy-intensive sectors, but its adoption remains uncertain because it depends on heterogeneous actor behaviour, market conditions, and policy support. To address this issue, this study combines Agent-Based Modelling (ABM) and the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP). The aim is to simulate the adoption of a green hydrogen production technology, investigate the main drivers of adoption, and assess its environmental, economic, and social implications in the Campania region, Italy, over the 2025-2050 period. The ABM-AHP approach allows for the integration of expert knowledge into agent decision rules, enhancing the realism of adoption dynamics across diverse actor types and validating the model at the macro-level. The ABM includes 359 potential adopters and 367 external agents, enabling the simulation of interactions among industries, commercial areas, institutions, power grid operators, suppliers, and electric vehicle owners. Adoption decisions are modelled through a utility function grounded in utility maximization and innovation diffusion theory. Adoption occurs when utility exceeds a predefined threshold. The model is then used to test alternative scenarios based on hydrogen demand, technology cost reduction, and degradation rate. Main results highlight that environmental concerns, social visibility, and economic feasibility are key drivers of technology adoption. This study shows that green hydrogen can achieve adoption rates of up to 87% by 2050 under favourable policy and cost conditions. At this level, the system delivers annual benefits exceeding €1 billion in energy savings, more than one million tons of CO₂ emissions avoided, and the creation of up to 16,800 new jobs. While based on scenario-driven simulations, the findings offer useful insights for strategic energy planning and stakeholder engagement within regional sustainability transitions.