Assessing corporate transition plans using a production asset-based planning approach

Corporate transition plans (TPs) are increasingly recognized as crucial for evaluating the credibility of corporate climate commitments. However, robust and transparent methods to assess the alignment of disclosed TPs with carbon budgets remain limited. Here, we introduce an open-source methodology-the production asset-based planning approach (APA)-which uses asset-level data to estimate potential CO2 emission trajectories. We apply APA to ten electric utilities and ten steel companies and find that only three companies' disclosed TPs appear broadly compatible with Paris-aligned benchmarks. Furthermore, our estimates suggest that 12% of electric utility assets and 42% of steel assets may require reinvestment before 2030, indicating a risk of carbon lock-in. Applying this method can support more robust evaluation of TPs and enable stakeholders to hold corporations accountable to reduce CO2 emissions in line with the Paris climate targets even if corporate disclosure is not available.