Spatiotemporal analysis of food insecurity in Iran from 2013 to 2023

Food is a fundamental human necessity, and shortages or insufficient caloric intake led to food insecurity, with consequences that extend from the individual to the societal level. In Iran, various socioeconomic changes in recent years have contributed to a steady rise in food insecurity, resulting in a significant increase in its prevalence across most regions of the country. This study investigates the spatiotemporal patterns of food insecurity using Foster-Greer-Thorbecke (FGT) indices applied to annual Household Income and Expenditure Survey (HIES) data from 2013 to 2023. Moran's I and Local Indicators of Spatial Association (LISA) are employed to analyze spatial clustering and spatiotemporal dynamics in conjunction with FGT measures of prevalence, gap, and severity. The dataset consists of annual observations from approximately 38,000 sample households in urban and rural areas of Iran, analyzed through spatial data mining at the county level. Findings indicate that in 2013, approximately 33% of surveyed households experienced food insecurity, largely concentrated in specific regions. In contrast, during the final three years of the study period-following the 2018 and 2021 removal of subsidies from energy and four major staple food groups in Iranian household consumption (flour, dairy products, poultry and eggs, and cooking oil)-the prevalence exceeded 49% and expanded across most regions of the country. If these conditions persist, particularly in the absence of policy support for essential food items within household consumption baskets, food insecurity is expected to intensify and become more widespread. Such a trajectory may pose substantial risks to public health, especially in already vulnerable regions. Furthermore, the food insecurity gap-based on a minimum daily caloric requirement of 2,100 calories-increased from 8.3% in 2013 to more than 14% in 2022 and 11.4% in 2023. Similarly, the severity of food insecurity, which reflects the extent of deprivation among the most affected households, rose by 35% over the decade. These results highlight critical spatial disparities that underscore the need for geographically targeted policy interventions.