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Wind-triggered Antarctic sea-ice decline preconditioned by thinning Winter Water
Theo Spira1,2,3, Marcel du Plessis1, F Alexander Haumann2,3
1Department of Marine Sciences, University of Gothenburg, Gothenburg, Sweden.
Nature Climate Change
|May 14, 2026
Summary
Antarctic sea ice dramatically shifted from high to low between 2015-2017. This regime shift was driven by thinning Antarctic Winter Water and increased mixing of warmer deep ocean water due to strong winds.
Area of Science:
- Oceanography
- Climate Science
- Sea Ice Dynamics
Background:
- Antarctic sea ice area drastically shifted from record high to low between 2015 and 2017.
- Previous research cited atmospheric circulation and warmer sea surface temperatures for this regime shift.
- The subsurface ocean state's role remained poorly understood.
Purpose of the Study:
- To investigate the subsurface ocean conditions that led to the Antarctic sea ice regime shift.
- To characterize the ocean-sea ice state changes between 2005 and 2017.
Main Methods:
- Utilized approximately 110,000 hydrographic profiles from the Southern Ocean.
- Employed atmospheric reanalysis data.
- Analyzed changes in Antarctic Winter Water thickness and subsurface water temperatures.
Main Results:
- Observed thinning of Antarctic Winter Water from 2005 to 2015.
- Documented warmer deep water moving closer to the surface and sea ice.
- Identified anomalously strong winds in 2015 enhancing mixing and entraining warmer waters.
- Showcased the breakdown of upper-ocean stratification.
Conclusions:
- Decadal-scale oceanic changes, specifically thinning Antarctic Winter Water, preconditioned the system.
- Strong wind-driven mixing in 2015 was the final trigger for the sea ice loss.
- The study reveals a combined ocean-atmosphere mechanism driving the Antarctic sea ice regime shift.
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