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Development and internal validation of a clinical nomogram for predicting vascular complications in patients with

Dragan Nikolić1,2, Janko Pasternak1,2, Vladimir Manojlović1,2

  • 1Faculty of Medicine, University of Novi Sad, Novi Sad, Serbia.

Phlebology
|May 14, 2026
PubMed

Insights

A new clinical nomogram helps predict vascular complications in patients with Baker's cysts. This tool identifies high-risk individuals, enabling tailored surveillance and intervention for conditions like deep vein thrombosis (DVT).

Area of Science:

  • Vascular Surgery
  • Orthopedic Surgery
  • Radiology

Background:

  • Baker's cysts can lead to serious vascular issues, including popliteal vein compression and deep vein thrombosis (DVT).
  • Currently, no validated tool exists to identify patients with Baker's cysts who are at high risk for these vascular complications.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To develop and internally validate a clinical nomogram for predicting vascular complications in patients diagnosed with Baker's cysts.

Main Methods:

  • A retrospective cohort study included 1,364 patients with Baker's cysts.
  • Multivariate logistic regression identified predictors for vascular complications, which were used to create a nomogram.
  • Internal validation was performed using bootstrap resamples and cross-validation.

Main Results:

  • Vascular complications occurred in 10.0% of patients.
  • Key predictors identified were: cyst size >40 mm, rheumatoid arthritis, venous insufficiency, anticoagulant therapy, and age >65 years.
  • The nomogram showed good discrimination (AUC 0.83) and successfully stratified patients into low-, intermediate-, and high-risk groups.

Conclusions:

  • A validated clinical nomogram using five accessible variables can stratify patients with Baker's cysts by risk of vascular complications.
  • This tool can guide surveillance intensity and intervention timing.
  • External validation is recommended before widespread clinical use.

Keywords:
Baker’s cystdeep vein thrombosisnomogrampopliteal cystprediction modelvascular complications

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