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Temporal Trends in Lung Cancer Cases Diagnosed at Early Stage
S Jane Henley1, Emily E Adam1, Christine M Kava1
1Division of Cancer Prevention and Control, National Center for Chronic Disease Prevention and Health Promotion, US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, Georgia.
Importance:
Since December 2013, the US Preventive Services Task Force has recommended lung cancer screening for adults at high risk of developing lung cancer because of their age and smoking history. Increased uptake in lung cancer screening may be reflected in changes in the stage at which lung cancer is diagnosed.
Objective:
To examine the percentage of lung cancer cases diagnosed at an early stage, visualizing temporal patterns with heat maps.
Design, Setting, And Participants:
This descriptive surveillance study used US Cancer Statistics incidence data to identify US adults who were diagnosed with malignant lung cancer from 2003 to 2022. Data were analyzed from November 14 to November 30, 2025.
Main Outcomes And Measures:
Percentage of lung cancers diagnosed at early stage, stratified by year of diagnosis, age at diagnosis, and state of residence.
Results:
From 2003 to 2022, 4 363 687 new lung cancer cases were reported in the US. The percentage diagnosed at early stage increased slowly from 17.6% (95% CI, 17.5%-17.8%) in 2003 to 20.2% (95% CI, 20.0%-20.4%) in 2014, increased sharply from 21.4% (95% CI, 21.2%-21.6%) in 2015 to 24.6% (95% CI, 24.4%-24.8%) in 2016, then increased steadily to 30.1% (95% CI, 29.9%-30.3%) in 2022. The percentage diagnosed at early stage increased in all states, beginning around 2016 in most states. In 2003, the percentage diagnosed at early stage ranged from 11.2% (95% CI, 8.5%-14.6%) to 24.0% (95% CI, 22.7%-25.4%); by 2022, this range was 22.0% (95% CI, 18.9%-25.5%) to 40.2% (95% CI, 36.7%-43.9%).
Conclusions And Relevance:
This descriptive surveillance study showed that since lung cancer screening was recommended in 2013, more people with lung cancer are being diagnosed early, when treatment is more effective and more treatment options are available. Population-based survey data indicate that fewer than 1 in 5 eligible persons reported being up to date with lung cancer screening in 2024. Strengthening awareness about the benefits of lung cancer screening and supporting uptake remain important strategies for cancer prevention and control.
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