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Published on: March 31, 2023
Limiting future warming reduces drought exposure for terrestrial vertebrates.
Yuchuan He1,2, Jian Sun3,4, Yanqiang Wei5
1State Key Laboratory of Tibetan Plateau Earth System, Environment and Resources (TPESER), Institute of Tibetan Plateau Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China.
Nature Communications
|May 14, 2026
Summary
Global biodiversity hotspots face increasing drought severity. Over 22% of threatened vertebrates, especially amphibians and reptiles, already exceed historical drought extremes, necessitating urgent conservation and climate action.
Area of Science:
- Climate Change Biology
- Conservation Science
- Ecology
Background:
- Biodiversity loss is a critical global issue, exacerbated by intensifying drought severity worldwide.
- Terrestrial vertebrates in biodiversity hotspots are particularly vulnerable to extreme climatic events.
- Understanding species' exposure to historical and future drought extremes is crucial for effective conservation.
Purpose of the Study:
- To assess the exposure of terrestrial vertebrates in global biodiversity hotspots to unprecedented drought severity.
- To project future drought exposure under different greenhouse gas emission scenarios.
- To inform conservation strategies and global biodiversity targets.
Main Methods:
- Analysis of drought severity in relation to pre-industrial historical extremes for terrestrial vertebrates.
- Modeling of future drought exposure under Shared Socioeconomic Pathway 2-4.5 and Shared Socioeconomic Pathway 1-2.6 scenarios.
- Identification of high-risk biodiversity hotspots and assessment of conservation protection levels.
Main Results:
- Currently, 22.5% of threatened terrestrial vertebrates face drought severity exceeding historical extremes across over half their range, with reptiles and amphibians disproportionately affected.
- Under an intermediate emissions scenario (SSP2-4.5), this figure is projected to rise to 36.5% by the late 21st century, with mid-latitude drylands most impacted.
- A low-warming future (SSP1-2.6) could reduce species exposure by 8.5% compared to SSP2-4.5, underscoring the benefits of climate mitigation.
Conclusions:
- Urgent climate mitigation is essential to reduce drought exposure for threatened species.
- Adaptive conservation strategies are vital, especially in inadequately protected biodiversity hotspots facing social burdens.
- The study provides spatial guidance for prioritizing conservation actions to meet global biodiversity goals.
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