Designing strategic scenarios for the digital transition

Area of Science:

• Business & Economics
• Engineering
• Information Science

Background:

• Existing Industry 4.0 (I4.0) research lacks methodologies integrating risk management into strategic scenario development.
• Current approaches primarily focus on technological aspects, neglecting crucial risk factors.

Purpose of the Study:

• To propose and validate a methodology for developing strategic scenarios for I4.0 adoption.
• To integrate risk assessment and organizational risk appetite into scenario planning for I4.0.
• To address the gap in risk-based scenario development for digital transformation.

Main Methods:

• Systematic literature review of 20 studies on I4.0 scenario development.
• Qualitative case study with 15 experts from industrial and academic backgrounds.
• Structured risk analysis identifying 35 risks across 9 categories.

Main Results:

• No existing I4.0 scenario methodologies were found to incorporate risk management.
• A validated methodological framework for risk-based scenario development was created.
• Four strategic scenarios were developed based on risk levels and organizational risk appetite.

Conclusions:

• Integrating risk management into scenario planning significantly enhances strategic decision-making for I4.0 adoption.
• The proposed framework provides a novel approach to managing uncertainty in digital transformation.
• This research fills a critical gap in risk-informed strategic planning for Industry 4.0.