Political distrust and confidence in medical institutions in the United States: An institutional spillover...

Confidence in medical institutions is a critical component of population health, shaping individuals' willingness to seek care, adhere to treatment, and comply with public health guidance. While prior research has emphasized demographic determinants of medical trust, comparatively less attention has been paid to the broader sociopolitical context in which institutional confidence is formed. Drawing on the institutional spillover perspective, this study examines whether distrust in political institutions is associated with lower confidence in medical institutions in the United States.

Using pooled cross-sectional data from the 2016, 2018, 2022, and 2024 waves of the General Social Survey (GSS) (n = 6603), we estimate survey-weighted ordinal logistic regression models to assess the relationship between political distrust and confidence in medical institutions. Political distrust is operationalized as an index of confidence in the executive branch, Congress, and the Supreme Court, while confidence in medical institutions is measured using respondents' reported confidence in "medicine." Models adjust for sociodemographic, socioeconomic, and political covariates, and include an interaction term to assess variation across pre- and post-COVID periods.

Results indicate a robust and statistically significant association between political distrust and lower confidence in medical institutions. A one-unit increase in political distrust is associated with approximately a 37% reduction in the odds of reporting higher levels of confidence in medicine, net of covariates. This relationship persists across model specifications and is modestly stronger in the post-COVID period.

These findings provide empirical support for the institutional spillover perspective, suggesting that distrust in political institutions may extend beyond the political domain to shape public evaluations of medical institutions. The results underscore the importance of considering political distrust as a broader structural determinant of health-related attitudes in contemporary U.S. society.