How Are Perceived Ambiguity and Risk Beliefs Related? Evidence From Longitudinal and Daily Diary Data

Ambiguity is widespread within health information. However, there remain important gaps in understanding how perceived ambiguity impacts health cognitions such as disease risk perceptions, a key precursor of health behavior engagement. Guided by theories concerning pessimistic appraisal and motivated reasoning, the present study investigated temporal relationships among perceived ambiguity and risk beliefs. Data on perceived ambiguity of COVID-19 information and risk beliefs (perceived likelihood, perceived severity, and worry) were collected across two participant panels (Panel 1: N = 548; Panel 2: N = 742) at baseline (Panel 1: March-April 2020; Panel 2: January-February 2021) and through a 10-day daily diary and a 1-year follow-up of each panel. Early in the pandemic, greater perceived ambiguity was concurrently associated with greater perceived likelihood and severity. One year later, the opposite relationship was found: greater perceived ambiguity was associated with lower perceived severity. In Panel 1, baseline perceived ambiguity was associated with lower perceived severity 1 year later; no lagged associations in Panel 2 were significant. Using both longitudinal and daily diary data, temporal relationships among perceived ambiguity and risk beliefs were generally not shown. However, across 2 years of a novel disease outbreak, the concurrent relationship between perceived ambiguity and risk beliefs changed from positive to negative, indicating both pessimistic appraisal and motivated reasoning. The findings suggest that how people respond to uncertain health information changes as a function of information novelty, highlighting a critical need to understand these relationships in an ever-evolving information landscape.