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Germline polygenic score for prostate cancer aggressiveness
George Jiajie Xu1,2, Roshan Karunamuni1,2, Anna M Dornisch2
1Research Service, VA San Diego Healthcare System, San Diego, CA, USA.
Medrxiv : the Preprint Server for Health Sciences
|May 18, 2026
Summary
A new polygenic risk score (PRSagg) predicts prostate cancer aggressiveness using germline variants. This score helps identify men at higher risk for aggressive disease, informing active surveillance strategies.
Area of Science:
- Genetics
- Oncology
- Urology
Background:
- Prostate cancer (PCa) risk stratification often relies on clinicopathologic features.
- Genetic factors can influence PCa progression and aggressiveness.
- A novel germline polygenic risk score (PRSagg) was developed to predict aggressive PCa.
Purpose of the Study:
- To develop and validate a germline polygenic risk score (PRSagg) for predicting prostate cancer aggressiveness.
- To assess the association of PRSagg with PCa grade group at diagnosis and unfavorable outcomes during active monitoring.
Main Methods:
- Developed PRSagg using genome-wide association study in 38,688 PCa patients from the Million Veteran Program (MVP).
- Tested PRSagg associations with grade group and unfavorable outcomes in MVP and validated in PRACTICAL Consortium and ProtecT trial cohorts.
- Adjusted for age, genetic ancestry, PCa risk score (PHS601), and PSA risk score (PRSPSA).
Main Results:
- PRSagg (172 variants) was associated with higher grade group at diagnosis (OR=1.53) and increased risk of unfavorable outcomes (OR=1.13) in MVP.
- Findings were confirmed in external datasets; PRSagg associated with higher grade group (OR=1.09) and metastasis risk (OR=2.15) in ProtecT.
- High PRSagg combined with low genetic risk of PSA elevation indicated highest aggressive disease risk in MVP participants.
Conclusions:
- Germline variants, quantified by PRSagg, are independently associated with prostate cancer aggressiveness.
- PRSagg may enhance risk stratification for active surveillance in men diagnosed with PCa.
- Further research into germline influence on tumor evolution and personalized surveillance is warranted.
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