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Risk factors associated with prediabetes-to-diabetes conversion in a majority-minority county: a real-world analysis
Joyce Y Lee1, Ifigeneia Stathaki1, Paul Gaura1,2
1Department of Clinical Pharmacy Practice, School of Pharmacy and Pharmaceutical Sciences, University of California, Irvine, 802 W Peltason Dr (Berk Hall), Irvine, CA 92617 USA.
Journal of Diabetes and Metabolic Disorders
|May 18, 2026
Summary
Prediabetes can progress to type 2 diabetes, especially in Hispanic/Latino individuals. Early intervention is crucial for those with high HbA1c and triglycerides.
Area of Science:
- Endocrinology
- Public Health
- Epidemiology
Background:
- Prediabetes is a growing public health concern, increasing the risk of type 2 diabetes.
- Identifying risk factors for progression is crucial for targeted interventions.
Purpose of the Study:
- To identify key risk factors for progression from prediabetes to type 2 diabetes.
- To evaluate the relative contributions of these risk factors in a majority-minority county.
Main Methods:
- Retrospective cohort study using deidentified electronic health records (EHR).
- Included adults with confirmed prediabetes (ICD codes, HbA1c); excluded those with diabetes or missing data.
- Used logistic regression and Cox proportional hazards models to assess predictors of conversion and risk.
Main Results:
- 19.3% of 2648 adults with prediabetes progressed to type 2 diabetes (T2D), with 81.6% converting within 5 years.
- Elevated baseline HbA1c was a strong predictor of earlier T2D conversion (OR 0.41 per 1% increase).
- Hispanic/Latino ethnicity (adjusted HR 1.25) and higher baseline triglycerides were associated with increased T2D risk.
Conclusions:
- Elevated HbA1c and triglycerides predict early conversion to T2D.
- Hispanic/Latino ethnicity is a significant risk factor for T2D progression.
- Early, targeted interventions are needed for high-risk individuals to prevent type 2 diabetes.
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