COVID-19 school closures, learning losses and intergenerational mobility

Area of Science:

• Socioeconomic impacts of global health crises
• Educational inequality and intergenerational mobility
• Longitudinal studies of child development

Background:

• The COVID-19 pandemic led to unprecedented school closures globally.
• Disruptions to education disproportionately affect children from diverse socioeconomic backgrounds.
• Understanding learning loss is crucial for assessing long-term educational and social mobility impacts.

Purpose of the Study:

• To investigate the longer-term inequality implications of COVID-19.
• To examine the impact of pandemic-related school closures on continued learning for children from different backgrounds.
• To assess the effects on intergenerational educational mobility.

Main Methods:

• Utilized the Global Database of Intergenerational Mobility.
• Employed country-specific learning loss simulation models based on school closure data (Feb 2020-Feb 2022).
• Analyzed World Bank high-frequency phone survey data on continued learning during closures.

Main Results:

• Extensive school closures are projected to significantly reduce both absolute and relative intergenerational mobility.
• In upper-middle-income countries, a potential 8-percentage-point decline in children exceeding parental education levels is estimated.
• Unequal access to continued learning exacerbates the decline in relative mobility, with optimistic modality assumptions worsening the effect.

Conclusions:

• The findings highlight a substantial risk to educational attainment and social mobility due to pandemic-induced school closures.
• Remedial measures are essential to mitigate the negative consequences on intergenerational educational mobility.
• The study underscores the critical need for equitable access to continued learning opportunities during educational disruptions.