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Updated: May 19, 2026

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Modeling Geneva charitable deductions: regular giving and future trends.

Marta Pittavino1,2, Giedre Lideikyte-Huber3

  • 1Venice School of Management (VSM), Ca' Foscari University of Venice (UNIVE), Venice, Italy.

Statistical Methods & Applications
|May 18, 2026
PubMed
Summary
This summary is machine-generated.

Tax incentives for charitable giving in Switzerland encourage regular donations, with wealth being a key factor. Forecasts predict significant growth in both total deductions and the donor population by 2022.

Keywords:
ETS and ARIMA modelsRegression methodsRegularityTime-series forecastsWealth tax incentives

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Area of Science:

  • Economics
  • Public Finance
  • Philanthropy Studies

Background:

  • Tax incentives are a common policy tool to encourage charitable giving.
  • Understanding donor behavior and the impact of tax policies is crucial for effective philanthropy.
  • Switzerland's tax system offers deductions for charitable donations, but their impact on donor behavior requires detailed analysis.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To conduct the first large-scale analysis of tax incentives for charitable giving in Switzerland.
  • To examine the relationship between income tax deductions, donation frequency, and donor characteristics.
  • To forecast future trends in charitable deductions and donor populations.

Main Methods:

  • Utilized unique panel data from Geneva taxpayers (2001-2011).
  • Employed statistical forecasting models, including time-series analysis.
  • Validated forecasts with cumulative data from Geneva authorities and employed linear regression.

Main Results:

  • 71% of donors made multiple deductions, indicating a core group of regular givers.
  • Regular donors' giving increased over time and was not significantly limited by tax deduction ceilings.
  • Wealth was identified as a significant predictor of donation frequency.
  • Forecasts predicted total charitable deductions reaching CHF135 million and the donor population growing to 72,349 by 2022.

Conclusions:

  • Tax incentives can foster consistent charitable giving, particularly among regular donors.
  • Wealth significantly influences the frequency of charitable donations.
  • Policy recommendations are suggested to optimize tax incentives for enhanced charitable giving in line with legislative reforms.