Forecasting Vascular Risk Factors in Young Ischemic Stroke Patients: A Two-Decade Perspective From Spain

The incidence of ischemic stroke (IS) in young adults (18-50 years) has been rising, in parallel with a growing prevalence of traditional vascular risk factors in this population. Understanding these trends critical for prevention and treatment strategies. This study aimed to analyze temporal trends in classical vascular risk factors among young adults hospitalized with IS in Spain between 2000 and 2022, and to forecast their prevalence through 2027.

A retrospective analysis was conducted using hospital discharge data from the Spanish National Inpatient Database. Patients aged 18-50 years diagnosed with IS between 2000 and 2022 were included. Temporal trends were assessed using ordinary least squares regression and stationarity was evaluated with the Augmented Dickey-Fuller test. Short-term forecasts (2023-2027) were generated using a cross-validated time-series framework comparing multiple univariate models. Model selection was based on out-of-sample root mean squared error.

A total of 57,427 young adults with IS were identified. Incidence increased from 7 to 15 per 100,000 population between 2000 and 2022. Increases were observed in obesity (5.2%-15.2%), dyslipidemia (20.8%-29.7%), and illicit substance use (1%-13.5%). Obstructive sleep apnea, patent foramen ovale, and other congenital heart diseases also showed upward trends, while hypertension and diabetes remained relatively stable. Short-term forecasts suggest a sustained burden through 2027.

The increasing burden of modifiable vascular risk factors and cardiac comorbidities among young IS patients underscores the urgent need for public health strategies focused on early detection, lifestyle modification, and prevention in this population.