Assessing the spatial clustering of climate change-related cardiovascular disease mortality in Iran: a spatiotemporal...

Cardiovascular diseases (CVD) are a major global health challenge, with rising prevalence, high mortality and disability rates, and significant economic costs. Emerging research suggests that climate change worsens these risks. This study aims to assess the impact of climate change on CVD mortality. This study analyzed validated national CVD mortality data from 2017 to 2019, with annual recorded deaths of 18,146; 21,945; and 24,352, respectively. These figures were aggregated to form the basis for subsequent analysis. We utilized advanced spatial statistical techniques, including Anselin Local Moran's I and Hot Spot Analysis (Getis-Ord Gi*), to assess CVD mortality patterns. Additionally, GIS were employed to identify and analyze climate change impacts at the township level, enabling a comprehensive spatial understanding of environmental and health-related factors. Following temperature, climate, and topographic assessments, an initial national zoning of these parameters was conducted. Analysis of spatial patterns revealed significant heterogeneity in CVD mortality across Iran's diverse climate zones, which range from arid deserts to mountainous regions. Hotspot analysis (Getis-Ord Gi*) identified significant high-risk clusters, particularly in the central arid regions, and low-risk clusters in other areas. The findings demonstrate a clear association between extreme climatic conditions, geographic features, and elevated cardiovascular mortality rates. Climate change and environmental factors significantly influence CVD mortality in Iran. Rising extreme heat events threaten cardiovascular health, especially among vulnerable groups. To combat this, targeted public health strategies and adaptive measures are needed to reduce heat-related risks nationwide.