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How rising ICE activity influences the childcare workforce.
Erkmen G Aslim1,2, Janet Currie3,4,5, Chris M Herbst2,6
1Department of Economics, University of Vermont, Burlington, VT 05405.
Summary
Increased immigration enforcement (ICE) activity significantly reduced foreign-born women's employment in U.S. childcare, particularly in visible, regulated settings. This led to a shift towards less formal private household care, impacting the sector's structure.
Area of Science:
- Sociology
- Labor Economics
- Public Policy
Background:
- Immigrants are crucial to the U.S. childcare workforce.
- The impact of immigration enforcement on this sector is understudied.
Purpose of the Study:
- To analyze how increased Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) activity affected U.S. childcare employment.
- To examine employment shifts across different childcare settings based on regulation and visibility.
Main Methods:
- Utilized monthly Current Population Survey data (September 2023-September 2025).
- Linked survey data with state-level ICE arrest records.
- Analyzed changes in enforcement intensity and their correlation with childcare employment.
Main Results:
- Increased ICE activity correlated with significant declines in foreign-born women's childcare employment.
- Employment losses were concentrated in highly regulated, visible center-based care.
- A rise in private household childcare employment suggests a shift to less formal arrangements.
Conclusions:
- Immigration enforcement alters the U.S. childcare workforce's size and structure.
- Findings suggest potential implications for childcare access, labor markets, and families.
- Native-born women showed limited substitution for foreign-born workers in this sector.
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